{"F": {"ts_code": "600105.SH", "name": "永鼎股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信线缆及配套", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970929", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 37.16, "pe_ttm": 129.795, "pb": 14.9293, "dv_ttm": 0.1346, "total_mv": 5432772.6768, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [1.3, 10.0, 13.4, 17.3, 16.6, 13.9], "rev_series": [32.9, 39.1, 42.3, 43.5, 41.1, 52.9], "np_series": [-5.6, 1.2, 2.1, 0.4, 0.6, 2.3], "roe_series": [-22.6, 4.7, 7.9, 1.5, 2.1, 7.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 63.7, "np_ttm": 4.2, "ocf_ttm": 6.8, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 13.9, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": 12.1, "npm_median": 3.7, "roe_median": 4.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.8, "fix_assets": 26.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 14.93, "capex_dep": 4.61, "interest_debt": 42.1, "debt_ebitda": 5.1, "debt_ratio": 62.4, "debt_mv": 7.7, "payout": 114.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 7.7, "np_cagr3": 2.9, "rev_yoy": 47.8, "np_yoy": 58.1, "np_vol": 117.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 48.3, "fwd_pe2": 19.2, "fwd_g1": 169.0, "fwd_g2": 151.0, "peg": 0.32, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["光通信", 38.0], ["汽车线束", 27.0], ["电力工程", 20.0], ["超导及铜导体", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 416.2, "ret_prev2_year": -10.1, "ret_ytd": 48.1, "ret_pivot": 952.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.7, "ret_60": -29.0, "ret_120": 34.7, "ret_250": 270.5, "mdd_250": -57.9, "vol_250": 81.1, "pos_52w": 50.9}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 47, "hard": 40, "bondness": 63}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 129.8 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 13.9%、固定资产占比 25%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 25%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.9%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 12.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 4.61 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 129.8 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 270%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 81%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -29% / 35%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "永鼎股份:PE 比行业中位高 45.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.6个百分点。"]}}