{"F": {"ts_code": "600104.SH", "name": "上汽集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "乘用车", "sw3": "综合乘用车", "ind": "乘用车", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19971125", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.47, "pe_ttm": 13.0246, "pb": 0.4029, "dv_ttm": 2.525, "total_mv": 12035555.5425, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.8, 9.6, 9.6, 10.2, 9.4, 10.1], "rev_series": [7230.4, 7599.1, 7209.9, 7262.0, 6140.7, 6461.5], "np_series": [204.3, 245.3, 161.2, 141.1, 16.7, 101.1], "roe_series": [8.0, 9.2, 5.8, 5.0, 0.6, 3.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6468.0, "np_ttm": 92.4, "ocf_ttm": 675.7, "fcf_ttm": 462.2, "fcf_yield": 38.4, "ocf_yield": 56.1, "gm_median": 9.6, "gm_std": 0.3, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 2.8, "roe_median": 5.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.5, "fix_assets": 907.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 0.4, "capex_dep": 1.57, "interest_debt": 1513.2, "debt_ebitda": 4.1, "debt_ratio": 61.9, "debt_mv": 125.7, "payout": 60.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.6, "np_cagr3": -14.4, "rev_yoy": 0.2, "np_yoy": -14.4, "np_vol": 217.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.7, "consensus_n": 12, "fwd_pe": 10.2, "fwd_pe2": 9.1, "fwd_g1": 28.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 0.85, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 48.0], ["其他业务", 1.0], ["合计特别调整", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -26.7, "ret_prev2_year": 59.4, "ret_ytd": -30.0, "ret_pivot": -9.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.2, "ret_60": -1.3, "ret_120": -27.1, "ret_250": -48.3, "mdd_250": -51.2, "vol_250": 21.9, "pos_52w": 54.0}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 45, "hard": 15, "bondness": 69}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 13.0 倍、股息率 2.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 9.6%、固定资产占比 10%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 9.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 38.4%(经营现金流/市值 56.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.6%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 1.57 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.0 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -48%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 22%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -1% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「乘用车」8 家中位:PE 27.1 / 股息率 2.3% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "上汽集团:PE 比行业中位低 14.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.3个百分点。"]}}