{"F": {"ts_code": "600103.SH", "name": "青山纸业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "造纸", "sw3": "特种纸", "ind": "造纸", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970703", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.55, "pe_ttm": 204.8394, "pb": 1.9969, "dv_ttm": 0.2423, "total_mv": 795493.4785, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.5, 20.1, 21.4, 17.0, 16.6, 18.7], "rev_series": [25.0, 28.7, 29.2, 26.7, 26.0, 24.2], "np_series": [0.8, 1.9, 2.1, 1.2, 0.8, 0.5], "roe_series": [2.1, 5.2, 5.5, 3.1, 2.2, 1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.4, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 4.5, "fcf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_yield": 3.2, "ocf_yield": 5.7, "gm_median": 18.7, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 7.9, "npm_median": 4.9, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.9, "fix_assets": 19.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.0, "capex_dep": 1.16, "interest_debt": 5.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 29.9, "debt_mv": 7.2, "payout": 34.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -6.1, "np_cagr3": -35.9, "rev_yoy": 1.9, "np_yoy": -28.3, "np_vol": 71.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["纸浆行业", 34.0], ["医药行业", 7.0], ["光电子行业", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 64.7, "ret_prev2_year": 7.9, "ret_ytd": -15.1, "ret_pivot": 104.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 21.2, "ret_60": 1.1, "ret_120": -2.2, "ret_250": 49.7, "mdd_250": -53.2, "vol_250": 68.8, "pos_52w": 64.6}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 52, "hard": 49, "bondness": 40}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 31%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.7%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.2%(经营现金流/市值 5.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.7%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 1.16 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 204.8 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 50%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 69%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 21% / 1% / -2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「造纸」25 家中位:PE 21.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 13.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 33%。", "青山纸业:PE 比行业中位高 183.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 19.0个百分点。"]}}