{"F": {"ts_code": "600100.SH", "name": "同方股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970627", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.87, "pe_ttm": 93.3907, "pb": 1.4748, "dv_ttm": 0.655, "total_mv": 2301654.5199, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.9, 19.6, 20.6, 17.8, 24.4, 26.8], "rev_series": [259.1, 284.6, 237.6, 288.3, 168.0, 150.6], "np_series": [1.0, -18.8, -7.7, -7.6, 1.4, 5.0], "roe_series": [0.6, -11.7, -5.0, -5.2, 0.9, 3.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 141.4, "np_ttm": 6.5, "ocf_ttm": 16.5, "fcf_ttm": 11.4, "fcf_yield": 5.0, "ocf_yield": 7.2, "gm_median": 20.6, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -1.3, "npm_median": -2.6, "roe_median": -5.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.1, "fix_assets": 29.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.47, "capex_dep": 1.79, "interest_debt": 135.6, "debt_ebitda": 17.1, "debt_ratio": 58.6, "debt_mv": 58.9, "payout": 30.5, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -14.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -16.3, "np_yoy": -171.0, "np_vol": 792.4, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 42.9, "fwd_pe2": 40.4, "fwd_g1": 118.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 7.15, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["公共安全", 20.0], ["数智产业", 10.0], ["数字信息", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.6, "ret_prev2_year": -3.3, "ret_ytd": -22.6, "ret_pivot": 33.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.1, "ret_60": 0.2, "ret_120": -22.9, "ret_250": -14.4, "mdd_250": -34.7, "vol_250": 37.1, "pos_52w": 69.9}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 46, "hard": 10, "bondness": 50}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 6.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 93 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 59%,有息负债 136 亿,经营现金流/市值 7.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.0%(经营现金流/市值 7.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.6%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 1.79 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 93.4 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 0% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "同方股份:PE 比行业中位高 41.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.6个百分点。"]}}