{"F": {"ts_code": "600099.SH", "name": "林海股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "摩托车及其他", "sw3": "其他运输设备", "ind": "摩托车及其他", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970704", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.31, "pe_ttm": 76.7867, "pb": 3.6742, "dv_ttm": 0.4834, "total_mv": 204000.72, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.9, 10.2, 12.4, 14.0, 11.8, 13.2], "rev_series": [6.0, 8.4, 7.3, 6.9, 10.5, 11.3], "np_series": [0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [1.6, 1.9, 1.9, 2.6, 3.6, 4.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.8, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 4.9, "ocf_yield": 5.4, "gm_median": 12.4, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 2.5, "npm_median": 1.8, "roe_median": 2.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.2, "fix_assets": 1.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.67, "capex_dep": 0.8, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 59.8, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 36.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 15.7, "np_cagr3": 38.1, "rev_yoy": 25.9, "np_yoy": 17.3, "np_vol": 16.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["特种车辆", 20.0], ["特种车", 20.0], ["农业机械", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.3, "ret_prev2_year": -13.8, "ret_ytd": -10.5, "ret_pivot": 26.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.3, "ret_60": 3.2, "ret_120": -17.2, "ret_250": -18.2, "mdd_250": -35.6, "vol_250": 31.6, "pos_52w": 78.9}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 47, "hard": 15, "bondness": 21}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 76.8 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.9%(经营现金流/市值 5.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.4%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 0.80 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 76.8 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 3% / -17%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「摩托车及其他」18 家中位:PE 28.8 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 17.1% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 50%。", "林海股份:PE 比行业中位高 48.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点。"]}}