{"F": {"ts_code": "600098.SH", "name": "广州发展", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "火力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970718", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.11, "pe_ttm": 13.14, "pb": 0.7881, "dv_ttm": 5.7283, "total_mv": 2142083.515, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.5, 4.1, 7.5, 10.8, 10.5, 8.7], "rev_series": [316.5, 379.1, 478.5, 467.5, 482.7, 508.4], "np_series": [9.0, 2.0, 13.5, 16.4, 17.3, 23.2], "roe_series": [5.1, 1.0, 5.7, 6.6, 6.7, 8.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 530.0, "np_ttm": 16.3, "ocf_ttm": 51.9, "fcf_ttm": -15.1, "fcf_yield": -7.1, "ocf_yield": 24.2, "gm_median": 8.7, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 6.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 59.6, "fix_assets": 509.6, "goodwill_ratio": 1.5, "pb_calc": 0.79, "capex_dep": 2.59, "interest_debt": 351.9, "debt_ebitda": 6.7, "debt_ratio": 64.5, "debt_mv": 164.3, "payout": 53.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.0, "np_cagr3": 19.7, "rev_yoy": 9.2, "np_yoy": -42.2, "np_vol": 279.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.6, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 11.6, "fwd_pe2": 10.4, "fwd_g1": 13.0, "fwd_g2": 11.0, "peg": 1.05, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["能源物流业务", 19.0], ["煤炭", 15.0], ["燃气业务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.4, "ret_prev2_year": 28.9, "ret_ytd": -2.9, "ret_pivot": 22.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.6, "ret_60": -8.9, "ret_120": -19.8, "ret_250": -3.5, "mdd_250": -27.1, "vol_250": 29.0, "pos_52w": 75.3}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 36, "hard": 95, "bondness": 82}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 53%、股息率 5.7%、营收 3 年复合 2.0%、有息负债/EBITDA 6.7 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 60%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 8.7%,稳定度 72%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.1%(经营现金流/市值 24.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.7%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 60%,资本开支/折旧 2.59 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.1 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -9% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "广州发展:PE 比行业中位低 14.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点。"]}}