{"F": {"ts_code": "600096.SH", "name": "云天化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "磷肥及磷化工", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970709", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 30.8, "pe_ttm": 10.5428, "pb": 2.2101, "dv_ttm": 4.5455, "total_mv": 5614811.356, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.4, 13.7, 16.2, 15.2, 17.5, 20.2], "rev_series": [521.1, 632.5, 753.1, 690.6, 615.4, 484.1], "np_series": [2.7, 36.4, 60.2, 45.2, 53.3, 51.6], "roe_series": [5.0, 43.8, 45.3, 25.8, 26.0, 22.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 462.4, "np_ttm": 53.3, "ocf_ttm": 78.3, "fcf_ttm": 56.0, "fcf_yield": 10.0, "ocf_yield": 13.9, "gm_median": 16.2, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 3.9, "npm_median": 9.4, "roe_median": 26.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.3, "fix_assets": 227.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 2.21, "capex_dep": 0.95, "interest_debt": 134.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 47.5, "debt_mv": 24.0, "payout": 48.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -13.7, "np_cagr3": -5.0, "rev_yoy": -8.9, "np_yoy": 6.1, "np_vol": 490.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 53.0, "earn_yield": 9.5, "consensus_n": 25, "fwd_pe": 10.7, "fwd_pe2": 10.0, "fwd_g1": -1.0, "fwd_g2": 7.0, "peg": 1.53, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["磷肥", 33.0], ["复合(混)肥", 17.0], ["商贸物流", 13.0], ["尿素", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 65.2, "ret_prev2_year": 65.3, "ret_ytd": -4.4, "ret_pivot": 94.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.3, "ret_60": 2.7, "ret_120": -26.5, "ret_250": 19.3, "mdd_250": -39.0, "vol_250": 44.2, "pos_52w": 71.0}, "S": {"duration": 23, "pricing": 49, "hard": 69, "bondness": 68}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 43%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 43%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.2%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.0%(经营现金流/市值 13.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.2%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 0.95 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 10.5 倍 粗算,约 53%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 19%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 3% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "云天化:PE 比行业中位低 10.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.7个百分点。"]}}