{"F": {"ts_code": "600089.SH", "name": "特变电工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "输变电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970618", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.88, "pe_ttm": 17.9225, "pb": 1.3463, "dv_ttm": 1.8945, "total_mv": 9539672.4288, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.6, 30.3, 38.6, 27.5, 18.1, 18.8], "rev_series": [441.0, 612.8, 958.9, 981.2, 977.8, 972.3], "np_series": [24.9, 72.5, 158.8, 107.0, 41.3, 59.5], "roe_series": [6.9, 17.7, 31.2, 17.8, 6.4, 8.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1054.3, "np_ttm": 53.2, "ocf_ttm": 109.1, "fcf_ttm": -135.2, "fcf_yield": -14.2, "ocf_yield": 11.4, "gm_median": 27.5, "gm_std": 7.6, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": 18.0, "npm_median": 14.4, "roe_median": 17.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.5, "fix_assets": 1113.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.26, "capex_dep": 4.25, "interest_debt": 570.2, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 56.9, "debt_mv": 59.8, "payout": 31.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.5, "np_cagr3": -27.9, "rev_yoy": 17.0, "np_yoy": -19.8, "np_vol": 95.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.6, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 13.2, "fwd_pe2": 10.5, "fwd_g1": 36.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 0.53, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电气设备产品", 16.0], ["电气设备", 16.0], ["电线电缆产品", 11.0], ["电线电缆", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 80.2, "ret_prev2_year": -6.6, "ret_ytd": -13.6, "ret_pivot": 66.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.5, "ret_60": -15.7, "ret_120": -37.0, "ret_250": 34.2, "mdd_250": -42.4, "vol_250": 49.2, "pos_52w": 58.2}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 50, "hard": 71, "bondness": 53}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 17.9 倍、股息率 1.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.5%、固定资产占比 44%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.5%,稳定度 72%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -14.2%(经营现金流/市值 11.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.5%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 18.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 4.25 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.9 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 34%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -16% / -37%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "特变电工:PE 比行业中位低 25.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 29.6个百分点。"]}}