{"F": {"ts_code": "600081.SH", "name": "东风科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "车身附件及饰件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970703", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.62, "pe_ttm": 90.1886, "pb": 1.258, "dv_ttm": 0.1036, "total_mv": 587313.8244, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.1, 13.5, 14.3, 12.5, 12.3, 14.5], "rev_series": [68.9, 78.6, 68.5, 68.2, 68.1, 62.7], "np_series": [1.0, 2.4, 1.1, 1.3, 0.9, 0.2], "roe_series": [7.0, 10.5, 3.4, 3.5, 2.0, 0.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 60.3, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 5.0, "gm_median": 13.5, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -1.8, "npm_median": 4.2, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.8, "fix_assets": 13.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.26, "capex_dep": 0.92, "interest_debt": 4.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 42.4, "debt_mv": 7.9, "payout": 32.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.9, "np_cagr3": -44.3, "rev_yoy": -8.0, "np_yoy": 107.5, "np_vol": 62.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["汽车零部件销售收入", 30.0], ["汽车零部件销售", 30.0], ["摩托车零部件销售收入", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.0, "ret_prev2_year": -8.2, "ret_ytd": -10.1, "ret_pivot": 17.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.1, "ret_60": 6.0, "ret_120": -10.0, "ret_250": -26.0, "mdd_250": -36.3, "vol_250": 30.1, "pos_52w": 75.1}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 45, "hard": 22, "bondness": 35}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 90.2 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 14%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 5.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.5%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 0.92 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 90.2 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 6% / -10%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "东风科技:PE 比行业中位高 60.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.7个百分点。"]}}