{"F": {"ts_code": "600080.SH", "name": "ST金花", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "中药Ⅱ", "sw3": "中药Ⅲ", "ind": "中药Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970612", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.85, "pe_ttm": 177.9812, "pb": 1.1366, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 181036.0955, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [70.7, 74.9, 76.2, 76.3, 78.3, 77.0], "rev_series": [6.7, 5.3, 5.8, 5.7, 5.9, 5.4], "np_series": [0.4, -0.2, 0.3, -0.4, 0.7, 0.2], "roe_series": [2.2, -1.1, 2.0, -2.6, 4.7, 1.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.5, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -2.0, "ocf_yield": 2.3, "gm_median": 76.3, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": 5.5, "npm_median": 2.8, "roe_median": 1.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.1, "fix_assets": 6.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.14, "capex_dep": 7.69, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 19.3, "debt_mv": 5.1, "payout": 14.4, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -2.1, "np_cagr3": -22.5, "rev_yoy": 1.8, "np_yoy": -87.2, "np_vol": 216.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["医药工业", 50.0], ["药品销售", 50.0], ["其他", 0.0], ["医药商业", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.1, "ret_prev2_year": 4.9, "ret_ytd": -35.7, "ret_pivot": -15.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.8, "ret_60": 1.5, "ret_120": -43.6, "ret_250": -38.7, "mdd_250": -51.9, "vol_250": 37.1, "pos_52w": 52.9}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 84, "hard": 51, "bondness": 32}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 178 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 19%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 32%、毛利率 76.3% 两条都占,但所在行业(医药生物)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 76.3%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 7.69 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 178.0 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -39%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 2% / -44%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「中药Ⅱ」68 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 57.5% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 64%。", "ST金花:PE 比行业中位高 154.9倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 18.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.7个百分点。"]}}