{"F": {"ts_code": "600078.SH", "name": "澄星股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "磷肥及磷化工", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970627", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.77, "pe_ttm": 68.0657, "pb": 4.0674, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 731996.9433, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [8.3, 20.1, 21.8, 9.8, 6.9, 11.8], "rev_series": [31.4, 33.3, 45.4, 31.0, 33.6, 36.0], "np_series": [-23.0, 20.2, 5.2, -0.6, -2.0, 0.1], "roe_series": [-388.5, 449.6, 30.4, -3.2, -11.3, 0.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 39.6, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 4.1, "fcf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_yield": 3.9, "ocf_yield": 5.6, "gm_median": 11.8, "gm_std": 5.8, "gm_stab": 0.51, "gm_chg_2022": 13.5, "npm_median": 2.7, "roe_median": 0.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.2, "fix_assets": 16.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.07, "capex_dep": 0.63, "interest_debt": 15.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 64.0, "debt_mv": 20.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -7.5, "np_cagr3": -74.7, "rev_yoy": 20.4, "np_yoy": 533.8, "np_vol": 150.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["磷酸", 50.0], ["黄磷", 43.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0], ["其他", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 65.3, "ret_prev2_year": -30.9, "ret_ytd": 12.3, "ret_pivot": 118.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.5, "ret_60": -14.3, "ret_120": -21.2, "ret_250": 67.0, "mdd_250": -44.9, "vol_250": 71.7, "pos_52w": 66.4}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 35, "hard": 44, "bondness": 27}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 68 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 64%,有息负债 15 亿,经营现金流/市值 5.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.9%(经营现金流/市值 5.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.8%,稳定度 51%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 13.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 0.63 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 68.1 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 67%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -14% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "澄星股份:PE 比行业中位高 47.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.4个百分点。"]}}