{"F": {"ts_code": "600075.SH", "name": "新疆天业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "氯碱", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970617", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.96, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.9497, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 847067.4608, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.3, 26.6, 19.6, 6.7, 11.3, 12.6], "rev_series": [89.9, 120.1, 116.5, 114.7, 111.6, 104.9], "np_series": [8.9, 16.4, 8.5, -7.8, 0.7, -0.6], "roe_series": [14.9, 19.6, 8.4, -7.8, 0.7, -0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 103.0, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": 12.9, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 1.8, "ocf_yield": 15.2, "gm_median": 12.6, "gm_std": 7.0, "gm_stab": 0.45, "gm_chg_2022": -9.7, "npm_median": 0.6, "roe_median": 0.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 67.1, "fix_assets": 141.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.91, "capex_dep": 1.26, "interest_debt": 74.7, "debt_ebitda": 6.4, "debt_ratio": 56.0, "debt_mv": 88.2, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -3.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -3.6, "np_yoy": 359.2, "np_vol": 126.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 12.3, "fwd_pe2": 8.7, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 41.0, "peg": 0.3, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["化工原料及产品", 46.0], ["化工产品", 46.0], ["水泥产品", 3.0], ["水泥", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.3, "ret_prev2_year": 0.7, "ret_ytd": 0.2, "ret_pivot": 33.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.3, "ret_60": 6.2, "ret_120": -36.1, "ret_250": 5.8, "mdd_250": -48.2, "vol_250": 47.0, "pos_52w": 63.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 26, "hard": 100, "bondness": 52}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 67%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 67%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.6%,稳定度 45%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.8%(经营现金流/市值 15.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.6%,稳定度 45%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 67%,资本开支/折旧 1.26 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 6%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 6% / -36%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "新疆天业:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.7个百分点。"]}}