{"F": {"ts_code": "600073.SH", "name": "光明肉业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "食品加工", "sw3": "肉制品", "ind": "食品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970704", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.78, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.1544, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 542007.651, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.1, 9.2, 13.2, 9.4, 10.3, 11.3], "rev_series": [238.7, 236.2, 249.9, 223.7, 219.9, 221.3], "np_series": [4.0, 3.0, 5.0, 2.3, 2.2, -1.3], "roe_series": [9.7, 6.9, 10.9, 4.6, 4.4, -2.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 228.8, "np_ttm": -2.0, "ocf_ttm": -3.4, "fcf_ttm": -7.3, "fcf_yield": -13.5, "ocf_yield": -6.3, "gm_median": 10.3, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 1.1, "npm_median": -0.4, "roe_median": 4.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.6, "fix_assets": 34.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 1.15, "capex_dep": 0.87, "interest_debt": 40.9, "debt_ebitda": 5.2, "debt_ratio": 57.6, "debt_mv": 75.5, "payout": 30.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -4.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 6.2, "np_yoy": -39.4, "np_vol": 74.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["牛羊肉", 33.0], ["猪肉制品", 6.0], ["其他主营业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.8, "ret_prev2_year": 3.0, "ret_ytd": -9.7, "ret_pivot": -2.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.6, "ret_60": 16.5, "ret_120": -12.0, "ret_250": -24.3, "mdd_250": -41.1, "vol_250": 25.6, "pos_52w": 73.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 44, "hard": 39, "bondness": 46}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 58%,有息负债 41 亿,经营现金流/市值 -6.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 25%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -13.5%(经营现金流/市值 -6.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.3%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 0.87 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 26%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 16% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「食品加工」27 家中位:PE 29.8 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 23.4% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 62%。", "光明肉业:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.9个百分点。"]}}