{"F": {"ts_code": "600063.SH", "name": "皖维高新", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学纤维", "sw3": "其他化学纤维", "ind": "化学纤维", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970528", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.57, "pe_ttm": 23.4539, "pb": 1.344, "dv_ttm": 1.7953, "total_mv": 1152492.2648, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.5, 24.9, 25.3, 12.7, 13.0, 12.7], "rev_series": [70.5, 81.0, 99.4, 82.6, 80.3, 80.1], "np_series": [6.1, 9.8, 13.7, 3.4, 3.7, 4.3], "roe_series": [11.3, 16.4, 19.5, 4.3, 4.5, 5.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 81.9, "np_ttm": 4.9, "ocf_ttm": 6.2, "fcf_ttm": -7.1, "fcf_yield": -6.2, "ocf_yield": 5.4, "gm_median": 13.0, "gm_std": 6.0, "gm_stab": 0.54, "gm_chg_2022": 6.8, "npm_median": 5.4, "roe_median": 5.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.3, "fix_assets": 69.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.34, "capex_dep": 2.57, "interest_debt": 39.2, "debt_ebitda": 3.9, "debt_ratio": 41.2, "debt_mv": 34.0, "payout": 35.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.9, "np_cagr3": -31.8, "rev_yoy": 4.3, "np_yoy": 22.4, "np_vol": 46.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.3, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 16.5, "fwd_pe2": 12.9, "fwd_g1": 42.0, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 0.59, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["聚乙烯醇", 20.0], ["其他主营业务", 12.0], ["醋酸甲酯", 11.0], ["其他", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 52.9, "ret_prev2_year": -6.1, "ret_ytd": -5.1, "ret_pivot": 82.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.1, "ret_60": -28.1, "ret_120": -27.8, "ret_250": 9.6, "mdd_250": -40.3, "vol_250": 51.4, "pos_52w": 62.9}, "S": {"duration": 44, "pricing": 37, "hard": 74, "bondness": 55}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 46%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.0%,稳定度 54%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.2%(经营现金流/市值 5.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.0%,稳定度 54%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 2.57 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.5 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -28% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学纤维」27 家中位:PE 32.4 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 46% / 分红率 35%。", "皖维高新:PE 比行业中位低 8.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点。"]}}