{"F": {"ts_code": "600059.SH", "name": "古越龙山", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "非白酒", "sw3": "其他酒类", "ind": "非白酒", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970516", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.19, "pe_ttm": 37.473, "pb": 1.431, "dv_ttm": 0.9579, "total_mv": 837707.4656, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.1, 36.0, 35.4, 37.6, 37.2, 37.7], "rev_series": [13.0, 15.8, 16.2, 17.8, 19.4, 18.3], "np_series": [1.5, 2.0, 2.0, 4.0, 2.1, 2.2], "roe_series": [3.6, 4.2, 3.7, 7.0, 3.5, 3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.2, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -1.6, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 37.2, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 0.3, "npm_median": 12.5, "roe_median": 3.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.7, "fix_assets": 23.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 1.43, "capex_dep": 3.67, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 10.0, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 34.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.2, "np_cagr3": 3.3, "rev_yoy": -11.9, "np_yoy": 1.4, "np_vol": 47.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 37.0, "fwd_pe2": 35.1, "fwd_g1": 1.0, "fwd_g2": 5.0, "peg": 7.4, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["酒类收入", 33.0], ["酒及酒原料生产与销售", 33.0], ["其他产品", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.3, "ret_prev2_year": -3.1, "ret_ytd": 0.2, "ret_pivot": 20.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 16.3, "ret_60": 19.2, "ret_120": -1.1, "ret_250": -10.8, "mdd_250": -32.2, "vol_250": 27.6, "pos_52w": 85.1}, "S": {"duration": 61, "pricing": 61, "hard": 57, "bondness": 34}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 23 亿,占总资产 36%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 37.2%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.3 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -1.6%,股息率 1.0%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 87%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 36%)和定价权(毛利率 37.2% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.2%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 3.67 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 37.5 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 28%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 16% / 19% / -1%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「非白酒」16 家中位:PE 22.9 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 40.5% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 60%。", "古越龙山:PE 比行业中位高 14.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.1个百分点。"]}}