{"F": {"ts_code": "600057.SH", "name": "厦门象屿", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "原材料供应链服务", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970604", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.52, "pe_ttm": 13.9503, "pb": 1.2158, "dv_ttm": 3.3751, "total_mv": 1851038.1712, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [1.9, 2.2, 2.1, 1.9, 2.3, 2.1], "rev_series": [3602.1, 4625.2, 5381.5, 4590.4, 3666.7, 4102.9], "np_series": [13.0, 21.6, 26.4, 15.7, 14.2, 12.9], "roe_series": [9.1, 13.4, 15.4, 8.3, 6.4, 4.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4153.9, "np_ttm": 13.3, "ocf_ttm": -7.8, "fcf_ttm": -20.2, "fcf_yield": -10.9, "ocf_yield": -4.2, "gm_median": 2.1, "gm_std": 0.1, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 0.2, "npm_median": 0.5, "roe_median": 8.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.6, "fix_assets": 103.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.57, "capex_dep": 1.56, "interest_debt": 338.8, "debt_ebitda": 4.9, "debt_ratio": 71.7, "debt_mv": 183.0, "payout": 52.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -8.6, "np_cagr3": -21.1, "rev_yoy": 2.5, "np_yoy": 3.3, "np_vol": 35.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 64.0, "earn_yield": 7.2, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 9.3, "fwd_pe2": 8.0, "fwd_g1": 50.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 0.58, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["大宗商品经营及物流服务", 32.0], ["金属矿产", 20.0], ["能源化工", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.5, "ret_prev2_year": 1.3, "ret_ytd": -22.4, "ret_pivot": 47.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.5, "ret_60": 11.3, "ret_120": -24.3, "ret_250": -5.0, "mdd_250": -39.7, "vol_250": 34.6, "pos_52w": 72.5}, "S": {"duration": 29, "pricing": 42, "hard": 12, "bondness": 73}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 52%、股息率 3.4%、营收 3 年复合 -8.6%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.9 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 2.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -10.9%(经营现金流/市值 -4.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 2.1%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 1.56 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.0 倍 粗算,约 64%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -5%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 11% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "厦门象屿:PE 比行业中位低 7.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.0个百分点。"]}}