{"F": {"ts_code": "600054.SH", "name": "黄山旅游", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "旅游及景区", "sw3": "自然景区", "ind": "旅游及景区", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970506", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.54, "pe_ttm": 28.4166, "pb": 1.7222, "dv_ttm": 1.2218, "total_mv": 841703.8276, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.8, 35.6, 20.4, 54.0, 51.8, 46.9], "rev_series": [7.4, 9.0, 8.0, 19.3, 19.3, 21.1], "np_series": [-0.5, 0.4, -1.3, 4.2, 3.2, 2.9], "roe_series": [-1.1, 1.0, -3.2, 9.9, 6.9, 6.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.6, "np_ttm": 3.0, "ocf_ttm": 6.5, "fcf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_yield": 3.3, "ocf_yield": 7.7, "gm_median": 46.9, "gm_std": 12.4, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": -13.5, "npm_median": 14.7, "roe_median": 6.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.8, "fix_assets": 21.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 1.72, "capex_dep": 2.41, "interest_debt": 3.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 16.6, "debt_mv": 4.0, "payout": 36.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 38.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 5.1, "np_yoy": 2.9, "np_vol": 273.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 25.3, "fwd_pe2": 22.1, "fwd_g1": 13.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 1.81, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["旅游服务分部", 28.0], ["旅游服务业务", 28.0], ["园林开发分部", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.7, "ret_prev2_year": 6.1, "ret_ytd": 3.2, "ret_pivot": 14.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.7, "ret_60": 8.0, "ret_120": -13.8, "ret_250": -4.1, "mdd_250": -25.8, "vol_250": 27.0, "pos_52w": 80.6}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 53, "hard": 56, "bondness": 21}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 28.4 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 46.9%、固定资产占比 35%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 46.9%,稳定度 73%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.3%(经营现金流/市值 7.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 46.9%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 2.41 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.4 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -26%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 8% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「旅游及景区」25 家中位:PE 66.7 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 32.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 44%。", "黄山旅游:PE 比行业中位低 38.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.0个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}