{"F": {"ts_code": "600050.SH", "name": "中国联通", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信服务", "sw3": "电信运营商", "ind": "通信服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20021009", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.25, "pe_ttm": 19.2101, "pb": 0.775, "dv_ttm": 3.8471, "total_mv": 13287380.795, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.1, 24.6, 24.2, 24.5, 23.4, 23.5], "rev_series": [3038.4, 3278.5, 3549.4, 3726.0, 3895.9, 3922.2], "np_series": [55.2, 63.1, 73.0, 81.7, 90.3, 91.3], "roe_series": [3.8, 4.2, 4.8, 5.2, 5.6, 5.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3933.8, "np_ttm": 69.2, "ocf_ttm": 953.9, "fcf_ttm": 296.9, "fcf_yield": 22.3, "ocf_yield": 71.8, "gm_median": 24.2, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -1.9, "npm_median": 5.0, "roe_median": 5.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 49.8, "fix_assets": 3375.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.78, "capex_dep": 1.21, "interest_debt": 313.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 43.6, "debt_mv": 23.6, "payout": 54.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.4, "np_cagr3": 7.7, "rev_yoy": 0.6, "np_yoy": -34.8, "np_vol": 5.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.2, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 16.9, "fwd_pe2": 15.9, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 2.82, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["宽带及移动数据服务", 30.0], ["数据及其他互联网应用收入", 24.0], ["其他业务", 9.0], ["增值服务", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.5, "ret_prev2_year": 26.9, "ret_ytd": -16.0, "ret_pivot": 2.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.2, "ret_60": -1.3, "ret_120": -15.3, "ret_250": -24.9, "mdd_250": -28.9, "vol_250": 22.3, "pos_52w": 75.5}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 52, "hard": 80, "bondness": 60}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 54%、股息率 3.8%、营收 3 年复合 3.4%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 50%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 24.2%,稳定度 98%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 22.3%(经营现金流/市值 71.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.2%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 50%,资本开支/折旧 1.21 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.2 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -25%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 22%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -1% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信服务」38 家中位:PE 82.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 20.1% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 34%。", "中国联通:PE 比行业中位低 62.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 37.7个百分点。"]}}