{"F": {"ts_code": "600048.SH", "name": "保利发展", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20060731", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.25, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.3231, "dv_ttm": 0.6608, "total_mv": 6284482.785, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.6, 26.8, 22.0, 16.0, 13.9, 12.7], "rev_series": [2430.9, 2849.3, 2810.2, 3468.3, 3116.7, 3081.4], "np_series": [289.5, 273.9, 183.5, 120.7, 50.0, 10.3], "roe_series": [17.2, 14.6, 9.4, 6.1, 2.5, 0.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2941.5, "np_ttm": 2.8, "ocf_ttm": 237.2, "fcf_ttm": 231.5, "fcf_yield": 36.8, "ocf_yield": 37.7, "gm_median": 16.0, "gm_std": 5.3, "gm_stab": 0.67, "gm_chg_2022": -10.6, "npm_median": 5.2, "roe_median": 6.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.7, "fix_assets": 83.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.32, "capex_dep": 0.48, "interest_debt": 3354.8, "debt_ebitda": 26.1, "debt_ratio": 71.8, "debt_mv": 533.8, "payout": 40.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.1, "np_cagr3": -61.7, "rev_yoy": -12.0, "np_yoy": -40.8, "np_vol": 25.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 23, "fwd_pe": 40.0, "fwd_pe2": 28.8, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 39.0, "peg": 1.03, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["房地产销售收入", 30.0], ["房地产", 30.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -29.9, "ret_prev2_year": -6.8, "ret_ytd": -13.4, "ret_pivot": -33.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.9, "ret_60": 2.6, "ret_120": -18.3, "ret_250": -36.5, "mdd_250": -44.0, "vol_250": 29.7, "pos_52w": 64.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 35, "hard": 1, "bondness": 50}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 为负(亏损),估值里约 100% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 1%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(23 篇研报)前瞻 PE 40.0 倍,次年 28.8 倍,PEG 1.03。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 36.8%(经营现金流/市值 37.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.0%,稳定度 67%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 0.48 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 3% / -18%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "保利发展:PE ;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点。"]}}