{"F": {"ts_code": "600039.SH", "name": "四川路桥", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "基础建设", "sw3": "基建市政工程", "ind": "基础建设", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030325", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.16, "pe_ttm": 10.4694, "pb": 1.5785, "dv_ttm": 5.3645, "total_mv": 7965160.9896, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.8, 16.1, 17.1, 18.1, 15.7, 14.4], "rev_series": [610.7, 850.5, 1351.5, 1150.4, 1072.4, 1151.1], "np_series": [30.3, 55.8, 112.1, 90.0, 72.1, 73.0], "roe_series": [15.8, 22.4, 32.5, 20.7, 15.5, 14.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1184.3, "np_ttm": 76.1, "ocf_ttm": 72.0, "fcf_ttm": 58.9, "fcf_yield": 7.4, "ocf_yield": 9.0, "gm_median": 16.1, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 2.3, "npm_median": 6.9, "roe_median": 20.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.8, "fix_assets": 46.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.54, "capex_dep": 1.37, "interest_debt": 761.8, "debt_ebitda": 5.2, "debt_ratio": 79.4, "debt_mv": 95.6, "payout": 49.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.2, "np_cagr3": -13.3, "rev_yoy": 7.6, "np_yoy": 11.2, "np_vol": 44.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 52.0, "earn_yield": 9.6, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 10.3, "fwd_pe2": 9.6, "fwd_g1": 2.0, "fwd_g2": 7.0, "peg": 1.47, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["工程施工", 47.0], ["高速公路", 2.0], ["公路投资运营", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 48.0, "ret_prev2_year": 5.7, "ret_ytd": -3.5, "ret_pivot": 87.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.8, "ret_60": 16.2, "ret_120": -3.5, "ret_250": 16.3, "mdd_250": -27.3, "vol_250": 30.7, "pos_52w": 90.5}, "S": {"duration": 23, "pricing": 49, "hard": 3, "bondness": 82}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 50%、股息率 5.4%、营收 3 年复合 -5.2%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.2 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.4%(经营现金流/市值 9.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.1%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 1.37 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 10.5 倍 粗算,约 52%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 16%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 90%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 16% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「基础建设」40 家中位:PE 11.7 / 股息率 2.3% / 毛利率 12.4% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 28%。", "四川路桥:PE 比行业中位低 1.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点。"]}}