{"F": {"ts_code": "600038.SH", "name": "中直股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航空装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航空装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航空装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20001218", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.95, "pe_ttm": 41.1357, "pb": 1.304, "dv_ttm": 0.8551, "total_mv": 2291601.494, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.5, 12.4, 10.3, 10.1, 10.5, 9.2], "rev_series": [196.5, 217.9, 194.7, 233.3, 297.7, 290.9], "np_series": [7.6, 9.1, 3.9, 4.4, 5.6, 6.5], "roe_series": [8.9, 9.9, 4.0, 4.5, 4.2, 3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 278.5, "np_ttm": 5.6, "ocf_ttm": -7.9, "fcf_ttm": -15.0, "fcf_yield": -6.6, "ocf_yield": -3.4, "gm_median": 10.3, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -1.2, "npm_median": 2.0, "roe_median": 4.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.5, "fix_assets": 53.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.3, "capex_dep": 1.14, "interest_debt": 64.0, "debt_ebitda": 5.0, "debt_ratio": 65.6, "debt_mv": 27.9, "payout": 28.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.3, "np_cagr3": 19.0, "rev_yoy": -12.0, "np_yoy": -33.6, "np_vol": 29.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 31.4, "fwd_pe2": 27.7, "fwd_g1": 31.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 2.42, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["航空产品", 49.0], ["先进制造", 0.0], ["其他主营业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.8, "ret_prev2_year": 0.6, "ret_ytd": -22.1, "ret_pivot": -18.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.1, "ret_60": 2.6, "ret_120": -21.3, "ret_250": -30.8, "mdd_250": -39.2, "vol_250": 23.8, "pos_52w": 69.1}, "S": {"duration": 64, "pricing": 43, "hard": 17, "bondness": 36}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 41.1 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 10.3%、固定资产占比 10%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.6%(经营现金流/市值 -3.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.3%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 1.14 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 41.1 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 24%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 3% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空装备Ⅱ」48 家中位:PE 73.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 32.0% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 36%。", "中直股份:PE 比行业中位低 32.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 21.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.1个百分点。"]}}