{"F": {"ts_code": "600037.SH", "name": "歌华有线", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "电视广播Ⅱ", "sw3": "电视广播Ⅲ", "ind": "电视广播Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010208", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.06, "pe_ttm": 38.1679, "pb": 0.7646, "dv_ttm": 0.7082, "total_mv": 982595.1974, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.4, 12.4, 9.0, 11.5, 8.1, 6.1], "rev_series": [25.8, 25.5, 24.4, 24.3, 23.1, 22.2], "np_series": [1.6, 2.1, 3.3, -1.7, -0.7, 0.3], "roe_series": [1.3, 1.6, 2.6, -1.3, -0.5, 0.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 26.3, "np_ttm": 2.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": -2.9, "fcf_yield": -2.9, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 9.0, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.74, "gm_chg_2022": -5.4, "npm_median": 1.5, "roe_median": 0.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.5, "fix_assets": 41.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.76, "capex_dep": 1.04, "interest_debt": 1.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 17.8, "debt_mv": 1.9, "payout": 202.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.1, "np_cagr3": -53.2, "rev_yoy": 44.5, "np_yoy": 2301.6, "np_vol": 99.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 54.3, "fwd_pe2": 50.4, "fwd_g1": -30.0, "fwd_g2": 8.0, "peg": 6.79, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["信息业务收入", 30.0], ["有线电视收看维护收入", 12.0], ["频道收转费收入", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.8, "ret_prev2_year": -3.2, "ret_ytd": -2.6, "ret_pivot": 19.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.4, "ret_60": 9.3, "ret_120": -9.4, "ret_250": -23.0, "mdd_250": -35.5, "vol_250": 31.5, "pos_52w": 73.7}, "S": {"duration": 61, "pricing": 34, "hard": 42, "bondness": 60}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 2.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 38 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 18%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 9.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.0%,稳定度 74%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 1.04 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 38.2 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 9% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电视广播Ⅱ」15 家中位:PE 38.2 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 24.7% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 62%。", "歌华有线:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.7个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}