{"F": {"ts_code": "600033.SH", "name": "福建高速", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "高速公路", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010209", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.64, "pe_ttm": 10.9606, "pb": 0.7995, "dv_ttm": 3.3242, "total_mv": 998961.6, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [50.3, 58.9, 57.0, 55.9, 56.6, 55.8], "rev_series": [23.3, 29.8, 26.7, 30.5, 30.3, 30.5], "np_series": [4.5, 8.3, 8.4, 9.0, 7.8, 9.5], "roe_series": [4.7, 8.2, 7.9, 8.2, 6.9, 7.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.1, "np_ttm": 9.1, "ocf_ttm": 26.8, "fcf_ttm": 21.9, "fcf_yield": 21.9, "ocf_yield": 26.8, "gm_median": 56.6, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 6.7, "npm_median": 37.6, "roe_median": 7.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 60.3, "fix_assets": 108.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.8, "capex_dep": 0.51, "interest_debt": 8.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 15.3, "debt_mv": 8.2, "payout": 35.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.5, "np_cagr3": 4.1, "rev_yoy": -2.9, "np_yoy": -6.8, "np_vol": 33.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 54.0, "earn_yield": 9.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.4, "ret_prev2_year": 34.4, "ret_ytd": -10.3, "ret_pivot": 20.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.8, "ret_60": 6.5, "ret_120": -3.4, "ret_250": 7.4, "mdd_250": -33.1, "vol_250": 32.4, "pos_52w": 77.3}, "S": {"duration": 24, "pricing": 74, "hard": 96, "bondness": 49}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 11.0 倍、股息率 3.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 56.6%、固定资产占比 60%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 60%、毛利率 56.6% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(铁路公路:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 21.9%(经营现金流/市值 26.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 56.6%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 60%,资本开支/折旧 0.51 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.0 倍 粗算,约 54%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 7%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 6% / -3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "福建高速:PE 比行业中位低 4.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 24.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 39.3个百分点。"]}}