{"F": {"ts_code": "600031.SH", "name": "三一重工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "工程机械", "sw3": "工程机械整机", "ind": "工程机械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030703", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.0, "pe_ttm": 20.6997, "pb": 1.9971, "dv_ttm": 2.4376, "total_mv": 18390008.8, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.8, 25.9, 24.0, 27.7, 26.4, 27.5], "rev_series": [993.4, 1061.1, 800.2, 732.2, 777.7, 892.3], "np_series": [154.3, 120.3, 42.7, 45.3, 59.8, 84.1], "roe_series": [30.6, 20.0, 6.6, 6.8, 8.5, 10.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 980.0, "np_ttm": 88.8, "ocf_ttm": 196.1, "fcf_ttm": 167.2, "fcf_yield": 9.1, "ocf_yield": 10.7, "gm_median": 26.4, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -5.8, "npm_median": 7.8, "roe_median": 8.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.8, "fix_assets": 212.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.0, "capex_dep": 1.06, "interest_debt": 190.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 48.6, "debt_mv": 10.4, "payout": 49.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.7, "np_cagr3": 25.3, "rev_yoy": 19.7, "np_yoy": 9.1, "np_vol": 38.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 29, "fwd_pe": 17.4, "fwd_pe2": 13.7, "fwd_g1": 19.0, "fwd_g2": 27.0, "peg": 0.64, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["挖掘机械", 20.0], ["混凝土机械", 8.0], ["其他", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 34.0, "ret_prev2_year": 23.1, "ret_ytd": -4.5, "ret_pivot": 30.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.1, "ret_60": 10.9, "ret_120": -5.3, "ret_250": -5.4, "mdd_250": -28.2, "vol_250": 33.6, "pos_52w": 84.0}, "S": {"duration": 40, "pricing": 50, "hard": 19, "bondness": 52}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 20.7 倍、股息率 2.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 26.4%、固定资产占比 12%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.1%(经营现金流/市值 10.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.4%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 1.06 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.7 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -5%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 11% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程机械」35 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 26.1% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 33%。", "三一重工:PE 比行业中位低 7.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点。"]}}