{"F": {"ts_code": "600029.SH", "name": "南方航空", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航空机场", "sw3": "航空运输", "ind": "航空机场", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030725", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.03, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.0263, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 9114848.1615, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-2.5, -2.5, -21.6, 7.7, 8.4, 10.1], "rev_series": [925.6, 1016.4, 870.6, 1599.3, 1742.2, 1822.6], "np_series": [-108.4, -121.0, -326.8, -42.1, -17.0, 8.6], "roe_series": [-16.3, -17.7, -60.1, -10.8, -4.7, 2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1906.4, "np_ttm": -13.1, "ocf_ttm": 364.6, "fcf_ttm": 39.7, "fcf_yield": 4.4, "ocf_yield": 40.0, "gm_median": 7.7, "gm_std": 11.9, "gm_stab": -0.54, "gm_chg_2022": -19.1, "npm_median": -1.9, "roe_median": -10.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.9, "fix_assets": 1486.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.03, "capex_dep": 2.53, "interest_debt": 2169.2, "debt_ebitda": 6.1, "debt_ratio": 85.9, "debt_mv": 238.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 27.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 9.7, "np_yoy": -141.1, "np_vol": 109.7, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 16.3, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["客运及客运相关服务", 42.0], ["货运及邮运", 6.0], ["其他业务收入", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.4, "ret_prev2_year": 12.7, "ret_ytd": -37.2, "ret_pivot": -4.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.3, "ret_60": 0.2, "ret_120": -20.0, "ret_250": -16.2, "mdd_250": -39.9, "vol_250": 32.6, "pos_52w": 60.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 8, "hard": 65, "bondness": 15}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -13.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 86%,有息负债 2169 亿,经营现金流/市值 40.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 7.7%,稳定度 -54%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.4%(经营现金流/市值 40.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.7%,稳定度 -54%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -19.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 2.53 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 0% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空机场」12 家中位:PE 19.6 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 11.6% / 固定资产占比 38% / 分红率 40%。", "南方航空:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.6个百分点。"]}}