{"F": {"ts_code": "600028.SH", "name": "中国石化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "炼化及贸易", "sw3": "炼油化工", "ind": "炼化及贸易", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010808", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.48, "pe_ttm": 18.4316, "pb": 0.7854, "dv_ttm": 3.6508, "total_mv": 66267181.7816, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.4, 19.1, 15.0, 15.6, 15.5, 15.9], "rev_series": [21059.8, 27408.8, 33181.7, 32122.2, 30745.6, 27835.8], "np_series": [329.2, 712.1, 663.0, 604.6, 503.1, 318.1], "roe_series": [4.4, 9.4, 8.5, 7.6, 6.2, 3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28110.9, "np_ttm": 359.5, "ocf_ttm": 1639.8, "fcf_ttm": 228.8, "fcf_yield": 3.5, "ocf_yield": 24.7, "gm_median": 15.6, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -4.3, "npm_median": 2.2, "roe_median": 7.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.6, "fix_assets": 9596.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 0.79, "capex_dep": 1.39, "interest_debt": 5688.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.2, "debt_ratio": 54.3, "debt_mv": 85.8, "payout": 68.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.7, "np_cagr3": -21.7, "rev_yoy": 2.0, "np_yoy": 19.3, "np_vol": 53.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 73.0, "earn_yield": 5.4, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 15.1, "fwd_pe2": 13.5, "fwd_g1": 22.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 1.26, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["汽油", 22.0], ["柴油", 15.0], ["原油", 11.0], ["其他主营业务", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.3, "ret_prev2_year": 29.5, "ret_ytd": -9.7, "ret_pivot": -10.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.5, "ret_60": 17.1, "ret_120": -11.9, "ret_250": -2.8, "mdd_250": -42.1, "vol_250": 28.0, "pos_52w": 71.1}, "S": {"duration": 37, "pricing": 44, "hard": 70, "bondness": 76}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 44%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.6%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.5%(经营现金流/市值 24.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.6%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 1.39 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.4 倍 粗算,约 73%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -3%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 28%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 17% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「炼化及贸易」30 家中位:PE 24.2 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 43% / 分红率 49%。", "中国石化:PE 比行业中位低 5.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点。"]}}