{"F": {"ts_code": "600026.SH", "name": "中远海能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航运港口", "sw3": "航运", "ind": "航运港口", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20020523", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.34, "pe_ttm": 16.576, "pb": 2.3134, "dv_ttm": 1.8682, "total_mv": 11128449.6828, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.0, 7.3, 18.6, 29.9, 27.2, 26.1], "rev_series": [163.8, 127.0, 186.6, 220.9, 232.4, 238.9], "np_series": [23.7, -49.8, 14.6, 33.5, 40.4, 40.4], "roe_series": [7.6, -15.7, 4.8, 10.2, 11.5, 9.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 274.0, "np_ttm": 67.1, "ocf_ttm": 112.7, "fcf_ttm": 16.8, "fcf_yield": 1.5, "ocf_yield": 10.1, "gm_median": 26.1, "gm_std": 8.2, "gm_stab": 0.69, "gm_chg_2022": -10.5, "npm_median": 16.6, "roe_median": 9.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 55.4, "fix_assets": 558.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.31, "capex_dep": 2.68, "interest_debt": 367.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.9, "debt_ratio": 49.0, "debt_mv": 33.1, "payout": 49.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 8.6, "np_cagr3": 40.4, "rev_yoy": 30.0, "np_yoy": 143.2, "np_vol": 161.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 70.0, "earn_yield": 6.0, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 9.1, "fwd_pe2": 8.3, "fwd_g1": 82.0, "fwd_g2": 10.0, "peg": 0.91, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 22.0], ["油品运输", 19.0], ["油品运输：外贸油品", 15.0], ["油品运输：外贸油品：外贸原油", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.6, "ret_prev2_year": -0.6, "ret_ytd": 80.0, "ret_pivot": 65.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.9, "ret_60": 25.0, "ret_120": -6.4, "ret_250": 95.2, "mdd_250": -44.7, "vol_250": 60.5, "pos_52w": 79.2}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 41, "hard": 89, "bondness": 49}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 143%,PE TTM 16.6 倍 但前瞻 PE 9.1 倍,PEG 0.91。", "自由现金流 16.8 亿(正),次年预期增速 10%(15 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 55%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 26.1%,稳定度 69%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.5%(经营现金流/市值 10.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.1%,稳定度 69%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 55%,资本开支/折旧 2.68 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.6 倍 粗算,约 70%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 95%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 15% / 25% / -6%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航运港口」35 家中位:PE 17.1 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 27.0% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 41%。", "中远海能:PE 比行业中位低 0.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.3个百分点。"]}}