{"F": {"ts_code": "600025.SH", "name": "华能水电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "水力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171215", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.76, "pe_ttm": 21.9841, "pb": 2.6004, "dv_ttm": 2.1004, "total_mv": 18183948.0368, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [53.2, 54.6, 56.4, 56.4, 56.1, 57.0], "rev_series": [192.5, 202.0, 211.4, 234.6, 248.8, 266.0], "np_series": [48.3, 58.4, 68.0, 76.4, 83.0, 85.0], "roe_series": [8.3, 9.3, 10.3, 11.3, 11.8, 10.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 267.8, "np_ttm": 82.7, "ocf_ttm": 195.2, "fcf_ttm": 25.1, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 10.7, "gm_median": 56.4, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": 3.3, "npm_median": 34.7, "roe_median": 10.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 88.0, "fix_assets": 2045.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.11, "capex_dep": 2.34, "interest_debt": 1264.4, "debt_ebitda": 6.2, "debt_ratio": 60.2, "debt_mv": 69.5, "payout": 45.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 7.9, "np_cagr3": 7.7, "rev_yoy": 1.5, "np_yoy": -5.0, "np_vol": 6.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.5, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 20.5, "fwd_pe2": 19.6, "fwd_g1": 7.0, "fwd_g2": 4.0, "peg": 5.12, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["水力发电", 43.0], ["太阳能光伏发电", 4.0], ["光伏发电", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.5, "ret_prev2_year": 13.2, "ret_ytd": 10.0, "ret_pivot": -3.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.9, "ret_60": 2.8, "ret_120": -5.1, "ret_250": 6.3, "mdd_250": -16.3, "vol_250": 18.3, "pos_52w": 94.1}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 73, "hard": 100, "bondness": 56}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 22.0 倍、股息率 2.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 56.4%、固定资产占比 88%、有息负债/EBITDA 6.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 88%、毛利率 56.4% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(电力:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 10.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 56.4%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 88%,资本开支/折旧 2.34 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.0 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 6%,最大回撤 -16%,年化波动 18%,现价在 52 周高点的 94%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 3% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "华能水电:PE 比行业中位低 5.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 33.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 27.3个百分点。"]}}