{"F": {"ts_code": "600022.SH", "name": "山东钢铁", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "普钢", "sw3": "板材", "ind": "普钢", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040629", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1.34, "pe_ttm": 129.2955, "pb": 0.7544, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1433645.8464, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.4, 8.5, 5.6, 4.0, 1.7, 9.4], "rev_series": [873.2, 1108.5, 1022.9, 904.8, 820.9, 672.5], "np_series": [7.2, 12.3, 5.6, -4.0, -22.6, 1.1], "roe_series": [3.5, 5.7, 2.5, -1.9, -11.3, 0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 622.5, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 26.7, "fcf_ttm": 17.2, "fcf_yield": 12.0, "ocf_yield": 18.6, "gm_median": 5.6, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.49, "gm_chg_2022": -0.9, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 0.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 67.3, "fix_assets": 542.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.75, "capex_dep": 0.28, "interest_debt": 215.2, "debt_ebitda": 4.5, "debt_ratio": 64.4, "debt_mv": 150.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -13.0, "np_cagr3": -42.4, "rev_yoy": -8.2, "np_yoy": 14.3, "np_vol": 205.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 17.9, "fwd_pe2": 8.4, "fwd_g1": 624.0, "fwd_g2": 113.0, "peg": 0.16, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["钢材", 86.0], ["焦化、动力、钢坯等中间产品", 12.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0], ["其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.1, "ret_prev2_year": 5.8, "ret_ytd": -11.3, "ret_pivot": 8.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.7, "ret_60": 4.7, "ret_120": -23.0, "ret_250": -14.6, "mdd_250": -30.5, "vol_250": 27.6, "pos_52w": 75.7}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 27, "hard": 100, "bondness": 34}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 67%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 5.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 67%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 5.6%,稳定度 49%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 12.0%(经营现金流/市值 18.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.6%,稳定度 49%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 67%,资本开支/折旧 0.28 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 129.3 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 28%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 5% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「普钢」22 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 3.5% / 固定资产占比 58% / 分红率 57%。", "山东钢铁:PE 比行业中位高 104.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.1个百分点。"]}}