{"F": {"ts_code": "600021.SH", "name": "上海电力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "火力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20031029", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.47, "pe_ttm": 20.439, "pb": 1.8974, "dv_ttm": 2.7468, "total_mv": 3801066.7026, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.2, 15.0, 19.2, 21.9, 23.5, 25.8], "rev_series": [242.0, 306.3, 391.6, 424.0, 427.3, 418.6], "np_series": [8.9, -18.9, 3.2, 15.9, 20.5, 27.7], "roe_series": [4.6, -10.2, 1.6, 6.5, 7.2, 8.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 394.3, "np_ttm": 18.6, "ocf_ttm": 120.8, "fcf_ttm": -79.2, "fcf_yield": -20.8, "ocf_yield": 31.8, "gm_median": 21.9, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -8.0, "npm_median": 8.4, "roe_median": 6.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 58.4, "fix_assets": 1235.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.13, "capex_dep": 2.93, "interest_debt": 1201.3, "debt_ebitda": 8.8, "debt_ratio": 69.8, "debt_mv": 316.0, "payout": 42.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 2.2, "np_cagr3": 105.1, "rev_yoy": -11.9, "np_yoy": -47.5, "np_vol": 220.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["电力", 45.0], ["热力", 3.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 130.6, "ret_prev2_year": 12.0, "ret_ytd": -31.5, "ret_pivot": 76.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.4, "ret_60": -19.7, "ret_120": -35.3, "ret_250": -1.8, "mdd_250": -55.4, "vol_250": 59.0, "pos_52w": 45.2}, "S": {"duration": 40, "pricing": 44, "hard": 93, "bondness": 64}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 20.4 倍、股息率 2.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.9%、固定资产占比 58%、有息负债/EBITDA 8.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 21.9%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -20.8%(经营现金流/市值 31.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.9%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 2.93 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.4 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 45%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -20% / -35%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "上海电力:PE 比行业中位低 7.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.3个百分点。"]}}