{"F": {"ts_code": "600020.SH", "name": "中原高速", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "高速公路", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030808", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.9, "pe_ttm": 13.439, "pb": 0.7361, "dv_ttm": 3.0769, "total_mv": 876475.002, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.4, 41.2, 20.5, 41.8, 33.0, 35.8], "rev_series": [50.8, 56.1, 74.1, 57.0, 69.7, 66.0], "np_series": [2.4, 7.4, 1.4, 8.3, 8.8, 6.3], "roe_series": [2.0, 6.1, 1.1, 6.1, 5.9, 4.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 64.2, "np_ttm": 6.5, "ocf_ttm": 23.4, "fcf_ttm": 7.1, "fcf_yield": 8.1, "ocf_yield": 26.7, "gm_median": 35.8, "gm_std": 7.7, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -11.9, "npm_median": 12.6, "roe_median": 5.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.1, "fix_assets": 97.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.57, "capex_dep": 2.69, "interest_debt": 340.3, "debt_ebitda": 14.5, "debt_ratio": 71.2, "debt_mv": 388.2, "payout": 50.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.8, "np_cagr3": 64.8, "rev_yoy": -5.9, "np_yoy": 3.6, "np_vol": 210.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 63.0, "earn_yield": 7.4, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 9.8, "fwd_pe2": 8.9, "fwd_g1": 38.0, "fwd_g2": 10.0, "peg": 0.98, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["通行费业务：郑漯路", 17.0], ["通行费业务-郑漯高速公路", 17.0], ["建造服务", 9.0], ["工程建造服务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.3, "ret_prev2_year": 21.3, "ret_ytd": -5.8, "ret_pivot": 17.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.9, "ret_60": 2.6, "ret_120": -4.2, "ret_250": -11.8, "mdd_250": -23.7, "vol_250": 20.6, "pos_52w": 83.3}, "S": {"duration": 29, "pricing": 49, "hard": 29, "bondness": 71}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 51%、股息率 3.1%、营收 3 年复合 -3.8%、有息负债/EBITDA 14.5 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 35.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.1%(经营现金流/市值 26.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.8%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 2.69 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.4 倍 粗算,约 63%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -24%,年化波动 21%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 3% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "中原高速:PE 比行业中位低 2.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点。"]}}