{"F": {"ts_code": "600019.SH", "name": "宝钢股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "普钢", "sw3": "板材", "ind": "普钢", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20001212", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.86, "pe_ttm": 12.7159, "pb": 0.619, "dv_ttm": 5.0762, "total_mv": 12764301.6342, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.8, 13.3, 5.8, 6.2, 5.5, 7.2], "rev_series": [2836.7, 3643.5, 3677.8, 3445.0, 3221.2, 3175.1], "np_series": [126.8, 236.3, 121.9, 119.4, 73.6, 103.5], "roe_series": [7.0, 12.6, 6.3, 6.0, 3.7, 5.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3268.7, "np_ttm": 100.4, "ocf_ttm": 317.7, "fcf_ttm": 141.4, "fcf_yield": 11.1, "ocf_yield": 24.9, "gm_median": 6.2, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.53, "gm_chg_2022": -5.0, "npm_median": 3.8, "roe_median": 6.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.7, "fix_assets": 1616.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 0.62, "capex_dep": 0.98, "interest_debt": 460.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 39.1, "debt_mv": 36.0, "payout": 61.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -4.8, "np_cagr3": -5.3, "rev_yoy": 6.2, "np_yoy": -6.3, "np_vol": 50.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 61.0, "earn_yield": 7.9, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 12.3, "fwd_pe2": 11.3, "fwd_g1": 3.0, "fwd_g2": 9.0, "peg": 1.37, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["冷轧碳钢板卷", 25.0], ["其他业务", 23.0], ["合计特别调整", 23.0], ["热轧碳钢板卷", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.2, "ret_prev2_year": 26.4, "ret_ytd": -19.4, "ret_pivot": 12.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.7, "ret_60": 3.4, "ret_120": -15.4, "ret_250": -15.8, "mdd_250": -28.9, "vol_250": 22.2, "pos_52w": 77.3}, "S": {"duration": 27, "pricing": 25, "hard": 70, "bondness": 76}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 44%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 6.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 6.2%,稳定度 53%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 11.1%(经营现金流/市值 24.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.2%,稳定度 53%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 0.98 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.7 倍 粗算,约 61%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 22%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 3% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「普钢」22 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 3.5% / 固定资产占比 58% / 分红率 57%。", "宝钢股份:PE 比行业中位低 11.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.5个百分点。"]}}