{"F": {"ts_code": "600018.SH", "name": "上港集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航运港口", "sw3": "港口", "ind": "航运港口", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20061026", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.43, "pe_ttm": 9.0007, "pb": 0.8621, "dv_ttm": 3.5912, "total_mv": 12641018.5515, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.3, 40.7, 37.8, 37.4, 35.5, 36.1], "rev_series": [261.2, 342.9, 372.8, 375.5, 381.2, 396.1], "np_series": [83.1, 146.8, 172.2, 132.0, 149.5, 135.6], "roe_series": [9.8, 15.7, 16.2, 11.2, 11.7, 9.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 414.7, "np_ttm": 140.4, "ocf_ttm": 124.6, "fcf_ttm": 43.3, "fcf_yield": 3.4, "ocf_yield": 9.9, "gm_median": 37.4, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 1.5, "npm_median": 42.1, "roe_median": 11.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.1, "fix_assets": 504.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 0.86, "capex_dep": 2.49, "interest_debt": 550.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.2, "debt_ratio": 31.5, "debt_mv": 43.5, "payout": 38.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.0, "np_cagr3": -7.7, "rev_yoy": 9.5, "np_yoy": 6.0, "np_vol": 34.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 44.0, "earn_yield": 11.1, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 8.4, "fwd_pe2": 8.1, "fwd_g1": 8.0, "fwd_g2": 4.0, "peg": 2.1, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["集装箱板块", 22.0], ["港口物流板块", 18.0], ["港口服务板块", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -9.6, "ret_prev2_year": 33.2, "ret_ytd": 3.9, "ret_pivot": 2.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.2, "ret_60": 12.5, "ret_120": 7.8, "ret_250": -4.3, "mdd_250": -19.4, "vol_250": 16.2, "pos_52w": 95.7}, "S": {"duration": 20, "pricing": 61, "hard": 34, "bondness": 62}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 9.0 倍、股息率 3.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 37.4%、固定资产占比 21%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.4%),硬资产占比 21%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.4%(经营现金流/市值 9.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.4%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 2.49 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 9.0 倍 粗算,约 44%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -19%,年化波动 16%,现价在 52 周高点的 96%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 12% / 8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航运港口」35 家中位:PE 17.1 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 27.0% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 41%。", "上港集团:PE 比行业中位低 8.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 26.0个百分点。"]}}