{"F": {"ts_code": "600017.SH", "name": "日照港", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航运港口", "sw3": "港口", "ind": "航运港口", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20061017", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.85, "pe_ttm": 18.6857, "pb": 0.6179, "dv_ttm": 2.5439, "total_mv": 876561.3615, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.6, 26.8, 22.7, 22.9, 23.6, 20.2], "rev_series": [57.7, 65.0, 75.0, 81.6, 84.6, 78.2], "np_series": [6.4, 7.4, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5, 4.9], "roe_series": [5.3, 5.8, 4.7, 4.8, 4.8, 3.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 79.7, "np_ttm": 4.7, "ocf_ttm": 24.3, "fcf_ttm": -4.8, "fcf_yield": -5.5, "ocf_yield": 27.7, "gm_median": 22.9, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -2.9, "npm_median": 9.3, "roe_median": 4.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 61.0, "fix_assets": 256.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 0.62, "capex_dep": 2.27, "interest_debt": 191.2, "debt_ebitda": 6.5, "debt_ratio": 61.0, "debt_mv": 218.1, "payout": 41.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.4, "np_cagr3": -7.8, "rev_yoy": 4.1, "np_yoy": -7.2, "np_vol": 13.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 73.0, "earn_yield": 5.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["港口服务", 47.0], ["其他业务", 1.0], ["物流代理服务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.7, "ret_prev2_year": 20.4, "ret_ytd": -3.7, "ret_pivot": 14.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.3, "ret_60": 9.2, "ret_120": -12.1, "ret_250": -12.0, "mdd_250": -23.3, "vol_250": 21.5, "pos_52w": 87.4}, "S": {"duration": 37, "pricing": 49, "hard": 98, "bondness": 63}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 18.7 倍、股息率 2.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%、固定资产占比 61%、有息负债/EBITDA 6.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 61%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.5%(经营现金流/市值 27.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 61%,资本开支/折旧 2.27 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.7 倍 粗算,约 73%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -23%,年化波动 22%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 9% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航运港口」35 家中位:PE 17.1 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 27.0% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 41%。", "日照港:PE 比行业中位高 1.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.9个百分点。"]}}