{"F": {"ts_code": "600012.SH", "name": "皖通高速", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "高速公路", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030107", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.51, "pe_ttm": 14.6587, "pb": 2.2393, "dv_ttm": 3.9976, "total_mv": 2820885.2269, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [50.5, 59.7, 43.2, 39.6, 34.5, 44.5], "rev_series": [26.3, 39.2, 52.1, 66.3, 70.9, 67.2], "np_series": [9.2, 15.1, 14.5, 16.6, 16.7, 18.8], "roe_series": [8.3, 13.4, 12.4, 13.5, 12.8, 14.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 62.1, "np_ttm": 19.2, "ocf_ttm": 37.3, "fcf_ttm": 23.6, "fcf_yield": 8.4, "ocf_yield": 13.2, "gm_median": 43.2, "gm_std": 8.4, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -7.3, "npm_median": 27.2, "roe_median": 13.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.4, "fix_assets": 20.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.24, "capex_dep": 5.93, "interest_debt": 146.2, "debt_ebitda": 3.5, "debt_ratio": 56.9, "debt_mv": 51.8, "payout": 60.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.9, "np_cagr3": 9.1, "rev_yoy": -13.8, "np_yoy": 4.9, "np_vol": 29.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 66.0, "earn_yield": 6.8, "consensus_n": 12, "fwd_pe": 13.6, "fwd_pe2": 14.0, "fwd_g1": 7.0, "fwd_g2": -2.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["合宁高速公路", 9.0], ["建造期收入/成本", 8.0], ["建造服务收入/成本", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": -13.6, "ret_prev2_year": 79.0, "ret_ytd": 16.6, "ret_pivot": 21.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.4, "ret_60": 2.4, "ret_120": 14.1, "ret_250": 12.2, "mdd_250": -17.3, "vol_250": 29.5, "pos_52w": 89.6}, "S": {"duration": 31, "pricing": 53, "hard": 10, "bondness": 67}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛", "现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:近 5 年净利润增速波动 30个百分点,营收 3 年复合 8.9%,利润在窄区间里波动。", "分红率 60%、股息率 4.0%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:有息负债 146 亿,有息负债/EBITDA 3.5 倍,资产负债率 57%。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 4.0% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 14.7 倍 倒过来就是 6.8% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 43.2%。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.4%(经营现金流/市值 13.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.2%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 5.93 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.7 倍 粗算,约 66%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 12%,最大回撤 -17%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 90%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 2% / 14%。 债券代理股的波动应该低;波动偏高,市场没完全把它当债。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "皖通高速:PE 比行业中位低 0.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.6个百分点。"]}}