{"F": {"ts_code": "600011.SH", "name": "华能国际", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "火力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20011206", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.86, "pe_ttm": 9.178, "pb": 1.6695, "dv_ttm": 5.8309, "total_mv": 10768892.0724, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.4, -0.3, 3.0, 12.1, 15.1, 18.4], "rev_series": [1694.4, 2046.1, 2467.2, 2544.0, 2455.5, 2292.9], "np_series": [45.6, -102.6, -73.9, 84.5, 101.4, 144.1], "roe_series": [4.1, -9.0, -6.9, 7.0, 7.5, 10.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2241.7, "np_ttm": 117.3, "ocf_ttm": 617.1, "fcf_ttm": 53.1, "fcf_yield": 4.9, "ocf_yield": 57.3, "gm_median": 12.1, "gm_std": 7.2, "gm_stab": 0.41, "gm_chg_2022": -14.4, "npm_median": 3.6, "roe_median": 7.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 68.2, "fix_assets": 4211.1, "goodwill_ratio": 1.9, "pb_calc": 0.78, "capex_dep": 2.09, "interest_debt": 3265.2, "debt_ebitda": 5.8, "debt_ratio": 65.9, "debt_mv": 303.2, "payout": 57.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -2.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -4.6, "np_yoy": -28.9, "np_vol": 175.6, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 46.0, "earn_yield": 10.9, "consensus_n": 20, "fwd_pe": 9.1, "fwd_pe2": 8.2, "fwd_g1": 1.0, "fwd_g2": 11.0, "peg": 0.83, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电力热力收入", 49.0], ["电力及热力", 49.0], ["其他收入", 2.0], ["租赁收入", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 15.7, "ret_prev2_year": -10.7, "ret_ytd": -2.8, "ret_pivot": 14.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.9, "ret_60": -11.7, "ret_120": -7.9, "ret_250": -2.7, "mdd_250": -29.5, "vol_250": 32.0, "pos_52w": 73.3}, "S": {"duration": 21, "pricing": 24, "hard": 100, "bondness": 85}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 57%、股息率 5.8%、营收 3 年复合 -2.4%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.8 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 68%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.1%,稳定度 41%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.9%(经营现金流/市值 57.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.1%,稳定度 41%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 68%,资本开支/折旧 2.09 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 9.2 倍 粗算,约 46%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -3%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -12% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "华能国际:PE 比行业中位低 18.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 4.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.5个百分点。"]}}