{"F": {"ts_code": "600010.SH", "name": "包钢股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "普钢", "sw3": "板材", "ind": "普钢", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20010309", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.21, "pe_ttm": 199.2348, "pb": 1.9076, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 9994953.293, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.7, 11.2, 7.7, 9.7, 7.9, 9.7], "rev_series": [592.7, 861.8, 721.7, 705.7, 680.9, 663.6], "np_series": [4.1, 28.7, -7.3, 5.2, 2.6, 3.7], "roe_series": [0.8, 5.3, -1.4, 1.0, 0.5, 0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 630.6, "np_ttm": 5.0, "ocf_ttm": 48.7, "fcf_ttm": 30.4, "fcf_yield": 3.0, "ocf_yield": 4.9, "gm_median": 9.7, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -1.9, "npm_median": 0.0, "roe_median": 0.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.0, "fix_assets": 652.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.91, "capex_dep": 0.42, "interest_debt": 434.2, "debt_ebitda": 6.2, "debt_ratio": 58.5, "debt_mv": 43.4, "payout": 34.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -2.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -10.5, "np_yoy": 84.6, "np_vol": 258.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 28.1, "ret_prev2_year": 27.4, "ret_ytd": -7.1, "ret_pivot": 58.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.1, "ret_60": -4.3, "ret_120": -23.0, "ret_250": -26.1, "mdd_250": -37.7, "vol_250": 42.1, "pos_52w": 66.6}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 41, "hard": 70, "bondness": 47}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 44%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 9.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.7%,稳定度 87%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.0%(经营现金流/市值 4.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.7%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 0.42 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 199.2 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -4% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「普钢」22 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 3.5% / 固定资产占比 58% / 分红率 57%。", "包钢股份:PE 比行业中位高 174.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.2个百分点。"]}}