{"F": {"ts_code": "600007.SH", "name": "中国国贸", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "商业地产", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990312", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.95, "pe_ttm": 15.862, "pb": 2.0518, "dv_ttm": 5.6464, "total_mv": 1908800.3375, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [53.5, 55.7, 56.5, 58.0, 58.1, 57.7], "rev_series": [31.0, 35.9, 34.4, 39.5, 39.1, 37.7], "np_series": [8.3, 10.2, 11.2, 12.6, 12.6, 12.0], "roe_series": [10.6, 12.3, 12.6, 13.4, 13.0, 12.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 37.0, "np_ttm": 12.0, "ocf_ttm": 15.3, "fcf_ttm": 14.6, "fcf_yield": 7.6, "ocf_yield": 8.0, "gm_median": 57.7, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 3.0, "npm_median": 31.9, "roe_median": 12.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.0, "fix_assets": 12.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.05, "capex_dep": 0.31, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 13.4, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 89.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.1, "np_cagr3": 2.5, "rev_yoy": -3.9, "np_yoy": 0.2, "np_vol": 10.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 68.0, "earn_yield": 6.3, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 16.4, "fwd_pe2": 16.5, "fwd_g1": -3.0, "fwd_g2": -1.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["物业租赁及管理", 43.0], ["酒店经营", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": -15.9, "ret_prev2_year": 40.1, "ret_ytd": 1.1, "ret_pivot": -18.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.6, "ret_60": -6.1, "ret_120": -0.3, "ret_250": -4.3, "mdd_250": -20.1, "vol_250": 23.6, "pos_52w": 87.4}, "S": {"duration": 33, "pricing": 73, "hard": 19, "bondness": 78}, "label": "轻资产现金牛", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 57.7%,自由现金流/市值 7.6%:现金机器,久期短。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 57.7%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "久期短、无杠杆,加息期相对安全;放水期跑不过科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.6%(经营现金流/市值 8.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 57.7%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 0.31 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.9 倍 粗算,约 68%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -20%,年化波动 24%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -6% / -0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "中国国贸:PE 比行业中位低 10.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 4.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 36.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.0个百分点。"]}}