{"F": {"ts_code": "600006.SH", "name": "东风股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "商用车", "sw3": "商用载货车", "ind": "商用车", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990727", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.36, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.355, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1072000.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.2, 10.5, 8.7, 4.3, 1.8, -1.1], "rev_series": [137.3, 155.5, 121.9, 120.7, 109.4, 88.6], "np_series": [5.5, 3.7, 2.9, 2.0, 0.3, -4.8], "roe_series": [7.3, 4.7, 3.5, 2.4, 0.4, -6.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 93.4, "np_ttm": -4.5, "ocf_ttm": -5.5, "fcf_ttm": -12.2, "fcf_yield": -11.4, "ocf_yield": -5.2, "gm_median": 4.3, "gm_std": 4.3, "gm_stab": 0.0, "gm_chg_2022": -5.4, "npm_median": 1.7, "roe_median": 2.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.3, "fix_assets": 29.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.35, "capex_dep": 3.3, "interest_debt": 4.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 49.5, "debt_mv": 3.7, "payout": 32.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -10.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 9.6, "np_yoy": 27.8, "np_vol": 681.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.5, "ret_prev2_year": 28.4, "ret_ytd": -25.3, "ret_pivot": -9.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.7, "ret_60": -5.0, "ret_120": -22.3, "ret_250": -35.3, "mdd_250": -37.1, "vol_250": 24.7, "pos_52w": 66.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 6, "hard": 29, "bondness": 34}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -4.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 50%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 -5.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 4.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.4%(经营现金流/市值 -5.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.3%,稳定度 0%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 3.30 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -35%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 25%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -5% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「商用车」13 家中位:PE 13.6 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 38%。", "东风股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.9个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}