{"F": {"ts_code": "301696.SZ", "name": "三瑞智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电机Ⅱ", "sw3": "电机Ⅲ", "ind": "电机Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20260410", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 92.94, "pe_ttm": 70.6442, "pb": 17.5262, "dv_ttm": 0.9415, "total_mv": 3717692.94, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [52.6, 56.0, 59.8, 60.0], "rev_series": [3.6, 5.3, 8.3, 10.7], "np_series": [1.1, 1.7, 3.3, 4.2], "roe_series": [35.0, 45.8, 55.5, 43.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.7, "np_ttm": 5.3, "ocf_ttm": 5.4, "fcf_ttm": 4.7, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 1.4, "gm_median": 57.9, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 35.8, "roe_median": 44.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.4, "fix_assets": 2.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 17.53, "capex_dep": 2.07, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 15.2, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 42.7, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 43.8, "np_cagr3": 55.1, "rev_yoy": 68.8, "np_yoy": 65.4, "np_vol": 27.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电机", 42.0], ["一体化动力系统", 19.0], ["螺旋桨", 13.0], ["其他业务", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.3, "ret_60": -16.3, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -44.3, "vol_250": 101.2, "pos_52w": 58.2}, "S": {"duration": 83, "pricing": 70, "hard": 15, "bondness": 21}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 70.6 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 57.9%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 57.9%,稳定度 95%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 2.07 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 70.6 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电机Ⅱ」28 家中位:PE 46.1 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 20.8% / 固定资产占比 20% / 分红率 38%。", "三瑞智能:PE 比行业中位高 24.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 37.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.4个百分点。"]}}