{"F": {"ts_code": "301687.SZ", "name": "新广益", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "膜材料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20251231", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 48.84, "pe_ttm": 58.0045, "pb": 4.7142, "dv_ttm": 0.6143, "total_mv": 717283.776, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.7, 32.4, 31.8, 32.0, 32.3, 31.9], "rev_series": [null, null, 4.6, 5.2, 6.6, 7.0], "np_series": [null, null, 0.8, 0.8, 1.2, 1.2], "roe_series": [29.8, 34.5, 24.6, 16.0, 18.7, 11.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.1, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 32.0, "gm_std": 0.2, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": -7.0, "npm_median": 17.6, "roe_median": 18.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.6, "fix_assets": 2.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.71, "capex_dep": 2.45, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 7.5, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 26.8, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 15.5, "np_cagr3": 14.8, "rev_yoy": 2.0, "np_yoy": 0.6, "np_vol": 16.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 51.4, "fwd_pe2": 41.4, "fwd_g1": 13.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 2.14, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["抗溢胶特种膜", 26.0], ["强耐受性特种膜", 13.0], ["新能源材料", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -31.2, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.3, "ret_60": -7.3, "ret_120": -23.3, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -52.9, "vol_250": 70.4, "pos_52w": 53.7}, "S": {"duration": 77, "pricing": 54, "hard": 22, "bondness": 18}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 58.0 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 32.0%、固定资产占比 14%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.0%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.0%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 2.45 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 58.0 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "新广益:PE 比行业中位高 16.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 18.3个百分点。"]}}