{"F": {"ts_code": "301677.SZ", "name": "欣兴工具", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20260730", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 53.01, "pe_ttm": 26.6126, "pb": 3.6596, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 530100.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [59.1, 58.8, 58.1, 57.1, 56.5, 55.7], "rev_series": [null, null, 3.9, 4.3, 4.7, 5.1], "np_series": [null, null, 1.7, 1.8, 1.9, 2.0], "roe_series": [19.3, 24.1, 21.7, 18.7, 17.0, 15.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.3, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 1.7, "ocf_yield": 3.8, "gm_median": 57.1, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 41.7, "roe_median": 18.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.8, "fix_assets": 5.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.66, "capex_dep": 2.44, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 12.9, "debt_mv": null, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 9.4, "np_cagr3": 4.8, "rev_yoy": 7.3, "np_yoy": 1.6, "np_vol": 9.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["环形钻削系列产品", 38.0], ["实心钻削系列产品", 4.0], ["其他主营业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 70, "hard": 51, "bondness": 14}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 5 亿,占总资产 32%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 57.1%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 1.7%,股息率 —,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 81%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 32%)和定价权(毛利率 57.1% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.7%(经营现金流/市值 3.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 57.1%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 2.44 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.6 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "欣兴工具:PE 比行业中位低 24.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 28.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.0个百分点。"]}}