{"F": {"ts_code": "301669.SZ", "name": "高特电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "其他电源设备Ⅲ", "ind": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20260609", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.26, "pe_ttm": 100.4896, "pb": 7.2631, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1260480.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.5, 26.6, 26.0, 21.1], "rev_series": [3.5, 7.8, 9.2, 12.6], "np_series": [0.5, 0.9, 1.0, 1.4], "roe_series": [31.3, 20.3, 13.2, 15.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.3, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -2.2, "fcf_yield": -1.7, "ocf_yield": -0.1, "gm_median": 26.3, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 11.1, "roe_median": 18.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.3, "fix_assets": 4.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.26, "capex_dep": 17.35, "interest_debt": 2.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 30.2, "debt_mv": 2.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 53.7, "np_cagr3": 36.6, "rev_yoy": -5.5, "np_yoy": -22.4, "np_vol": 21.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["储能BMS模块", 17.0], ["BMS模块", 17.0], ["高压箱、蓄电池", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.2, "ret_60": -33.9, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -48.8, "vol_250": 95.2, "pos_52w": 51.2}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 52, "hard": 26, "bondness": 4}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 100.5 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 16%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.7%(经营现金流/市值 -0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.3%,稳定度 90%。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 17.35 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 100.5 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「其他电源设备Ⅱ」33 家中位:PE 69.0 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 25.3% / 固定资产占比 16% / 分红率 34%。", "高特电子:PE 比行业中位高 31.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点。"]}}