{"F": {"ts_code": "301667.SZ", "name": "纳百川", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20251223", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 58.82, "pe_ttm": 128.6632, "pb": 5.2244, "dv_ttm": 0.17, "total_mv": 656840.5872, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.0, 23.2, 21.8, 19.2, 17.4, 13.5], "rev_series": [null, null, 10.3, 11.4, 14.4, 17.8], "np_series": [null, null, 1.1, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0], "roe_series": [13.2, 25.7, 30.4, 20.4, 16.5, 10.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 19.9, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -1.3, "ocf_yield": -0.8, "gm_median": 19.2, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -3.2, "npm_median": 8.6, "roe_median": 20.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.1, "fix_assets": 4.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.22, "capex_dep": 0.65, "interest_debt": 2.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 52.1, "debt_mv": 3.9, "payout": 8.7, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 20.0, "np_cagr3": -5.2, "rev_yoy": 28.6, "np_yoy": -143.9, "np_vol": 196.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电池液冷板", 44.0], ["燃油车热管理部件", 3.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -26.6, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.9, "ret_60": -20.6, "ret_120": -30.5, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -57.1, "vol_250": 91.6, "pos_52w": 46.6}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 43, "hard": 29, "bondness": 9}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 128.7 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 18%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.3%(经营现金流/市值 -0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.2%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 0.65 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 128.7 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "纳百川:PE 比行业中位高 98.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.4个百分点。"]}}