{"F": {"ts_code": "301665.SZ", "name": "泰禾股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "农药", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20250411", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.3, "pe_ttm": 19.989, "pb": 2.8691, "dv_ttm": 2.5751, "total_mv": 1048500.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.2, 25.3, 26.8, 23.7, 21.1, 26.7], "rev_series": [30.6, 35.8, 51.0, 38.7, 42.4, 53.7], "np_series": [3.9, 4.0, 6.5, 3.5, 2.7, 4.7], "roe_series": [24.6, 21.6, 29.3, 13.5, 9.2, 14.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 59.3, "np_ttm": 5.2, "ocf_ttm": 9.7, "fcf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_yield": 2.1, "ocf_yield": 9.3, "gm_median": 25.3, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -4.4, "npm_median": 11.4, "roe_median": 14.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 50.4, "fix_assets": 32.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 2.87, "capex_dep": 2.86, "interest_debt": 13.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 34.4, "debt_mv": 12.6, "payout": 58.3, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 1.7, "np_cagr3": -10.5, "rev_yoy": 23.2, "np_yoy": 32.3, "np_vol": 47.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 5.0, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 18.7, "fwd_pe2": 15.4, "fwd_g1": 7.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 0.85, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["杀菌剂", 18.0], ["除草剂", 16.0], ["其他主营业务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -16.3, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.4, "ret_60": 6.8, "ret_120": -22.9, "ret_250": -23.7, "mdd_250": -35.9, "vol_250": 34.4, "pos_52w": 71.2}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 49, "hard": 81, "bondness": 57}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 32%,PE TTM 20.0 倍 但前瞻 PE 18.7 倍,PEG 0.85。", "自由现金流 2.2 亿(正),次年预期增速 22%(2 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 50%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.1%(经营现金流/市值 9.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 50%,资本开支/折旧 2.86 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.0 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 7% / -23%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "泰禾股份:PE 比行业中位低 0.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.8个百分点。"]}}