{"F": {"ts_code": "301662.SZ", "name": "宏工科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电专用设备", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20250417", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 62.7, "pe_ttm": 72.6578, "pb": 4.7891, "dv_ttm": 0.66, "total_mv": 727320.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.0, 27.5, 28.2, 24.2, 29.1, 21.4], "rev_series": [null, null, 21.8, 32.0, 21.6, 20.3], "np_series": [null, null, 3.0, 3.1, 2.2, 0.6], "roe_series": [58.2, 29.3, 86.1, 48.3, 22.7, 4.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.3, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 4.5, "fcf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_yield": 3.7, "ocf_yield": 6.2, "gm_median": 27.5, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -8.8, "npm_median": 9.8, "roe_median": 29.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.6, "fix_assets": 4.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.79, "capex_dep": 9.89, "interest_debt": 4.4, "debt_ebitda": 4.8, "debt_ratio": 72.5, "debt_mv": 6.1, "payout": 51.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -2.3, "np_cagr3": -41.4, "rev_yoy": 26.8, "np_yoy": 75.1, "np_vol": 211.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 26.8, "fwd_pe2": 17.1, "fwd_g1": 171.0, "fwd_g2": 57.0, "peg": 0.47, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["锂电池产线及设备", 44.0], ["其他产线及设备", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -24.0, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.7, "ret_60": -27.7, "ret_120": -39.6, "ret_250": -14.6, "mdd_250": -55.2, "vol_250": 75.0, "pos_52w": 46.2}, "S": {"duration": 84, "pricing": 49, "hard": 12, "bondness": 56}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["成长兑现", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 72.7 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 8%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 26.8 倍,次年 17.1 倍,PEG 0.47。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.7%(经营现金流/市值 6.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.5%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 9.89 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 72.7 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 75%,现价在 52 周高点的 46%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -28% / -40%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "宏工科技:PE 比行业中位高 36.9倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 20.2个百分点。"]}}