{"F": {"ts_code": "301658.SZ", "name": "首航新能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "逆变器", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20250402", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.33, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.9342, "dv_ttm": 0.3269, "total_mv": 920824.8896, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.5, 33.3, 35.4, 31.5, 35.7, 29.0], "rev_series": [null, null, 44.6, 37.4, 27.1, 25.7], "np_series": [null, null, 8.5, 3.4, 2.6, 1.6], "roe_series": [126.8, 28.6, 55.8, 15.7, 10.3, 5.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.7, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 33.3, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -2.1, "npm_median": 9.6, "roe_median": 15.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.9, "fix_assets": 7.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.93, "capex_dep": 1.13, "interest_debt": 4.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.0, "debt_ratio": 45.5, "debt_mv": 4.9, "payout": 18.4, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -16.7, "np_cagr3": -43.0, "rev_yoy": 17.7, "np_yoy": -179.0, "np_vol": 155.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["储能电池", 17.0], ["并网逆变器", 16.0], ["储能系统", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -21.6, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.0, "ret_60": -23.7, "ret_120": -55.5, "ret_250": -36.3, "mdd_250": -63.8, "vol_250": 59.7, "pos_52w": 36.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 55, "hard": 21, "bondness": 37}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 46%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.3%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.3%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 1.13 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -64%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 37%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -24% / -56%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "首航新能:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.7个百分点。"]}}