{"F": {"ts_code": "301655.SZ", "name": "绿控传动", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "汽车电子电气系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20260820", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.78, "pe_ttm": 52.032, "pb": 10.455, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1083436.2996, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.0, 19.8, 7.1, 16.8, 19.8, 16.1], "rev_series": [2.8, 4.3, 7.1, 7.7, 13.3, 33.5], "np_series": [-0.6, -1.3, -1.0, -0.1, 0.5, 1.5], "roe_series": [-80.6, -103.7, -32.9, -3.2, 10.9, 21.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 45.0, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": null, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": null, "gm_median": 16.8, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": -17.8, "npm_median": -1.6, "roe_median": -3.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.3, "fix_assets": 10.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.46, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": 16.2, "debt_ebitda": 4.6, "debt_ratio": 82.3, "debt_mv": 15.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 67.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 94.1, "np_yoy": 80.6, "np_vol": 207.5, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 1.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["货车", 29.0], ["电驱动系统-货车", 29.0], ["非道路移动机械", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 73, "pricing": 37, "hard": 28, "bondness": 14}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 2.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 52 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 82%,有息负债 16 亿,经营现金流/市值 —:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 17%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 —(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.8%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -17.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 52.0 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "绿控传动:PE 比行业中位高 21.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.2个百分点。"]}}