{"F": {"ts_code": "301638.SZ", "name": "南网数字", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20251118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.64, "pe_ttm": 83.9935, "pb": 6.1803, "dv_ttm": 0.2773, "total_mv": 6880763.0328, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20191231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, 30.6, 32.7, 30.1, 28.6], "rev_series": [null, 56.9, 42.3, 60.9, 72.2], "np_series": [null, 6.5, 3.8, 5.7, 6.3], "roe_series": [14.4, 16.3, 6.6, 7.4, 6.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 78.8, "np_ttm": 8.2, "ocf_ttm": 16.9, "fcf_ttm": 5.8, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 30.3, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 9.2, "roe_median": 7.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.7, "fix_assets": 20.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.18, "capex_dep": 3.05, "interest_debt": 2.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 26.4, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 26.1, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 8.3, "np_cagr3": -1.2, "rev_yoy": 42.4, "np_yoy": 1453.6, "np_vol": 38.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 92.1, "fwd_pe2": 75.9, "fwd_g1": -9.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 4.39, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 25.0], ["数字基础设施", 9.0], ["电网数字化", 9.0], ["数字基础设施：数据中心(IDC)业务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": 15.4, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.8, "ret_60": -7.9, "ret_120": -31.9, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -41.3, "vol_250": 67.7, "pos_52w": 61.5}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 56, "hard": 22, "bondness": 23}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 84.0 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 14%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(2 篇研报)前瞻 PE 92.1 倍,次年 75.9 倍,PEG 4.39。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.3%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.3%,稳定度 95%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 3.05 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 84.0 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "南网数字:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.1个百分点。"]}}