{"F": {"ts_code": "301631.SZ", "name": "壹连科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "汽车电子电气系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20241122", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 63.0, "pe_ttm": 28.1971, "pb": 3.0991, "dv_ttm": 1.1338, "total_mv": 806276.52, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.1, 21.7, 19.5, 18.9, 15.9, 15.5], "rev_series": [null, null, 27.6, 30.7, 39.1, 51.5], "np_series": [null, null, 2.4, 2.6, 2.3, 2.9], "roe_series": [27.9, 37.5, 37.9, 29.6, 13.9, 11.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 59.8, "np_ttm": 2.9, "ocf_ttm": 6.7, "fcf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_yield": 2.4, "ocf_yield": 8.4, "gm_median": 18.9, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -3.5, "npm_median": 8.3, "roe_median": 29.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.3, "fix_assets": 12.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.1, "capex_dep": 5.48, "interest_debt": 3.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 58.2, "debt_mv": 4.4, "payout": 28.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 23.1, "np_cagr3": 7.6, "rev_yoy": 40.2, "np_yoy": -5.5, "np_vol": 45.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 17.8, "fwd_pe2": 12.8, "fwd_g1": 59.0, "fwd_g2": 39.0, "peg": 0.46, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电芯连接组件", 58.0], ["低压信号传输组件", 26.0], ["动力传输组件", 15.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.1, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -14.0, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.5, "ret_60": -16.3, "ret_120": -5.5, "ret_250": -1.5, "mdd_250": -45.6, "vol_250": 52.7, "pos_52w": 64.3}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 45, "hard": 32, "bondness": 19}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 28.2 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 18.9%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.4%(经营现金流/市值 8.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.9%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 5.48 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.2 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -16% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "壹连科技:PE 比行业中位低 2.0倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.2个百分点。"]}}